Scenario Building
References such as The Scenario Building Handbook andThe Art of the Longview provide a basic structure forlearning to build scenarios. The linearity of identifyingtopics, translating them into forces and drivers,developing clusters, and then using matrices ofcertainty and uncertainty to plot scenarios is fool-proof, but we felt it was not an accurate representation ofreality. Our proposed scenario building tool utilizesthese same key factors, but places them on a dynamiccontinuum that illustrates the importance of unforeseen elements.As in any design research process, knowledge in theform of models and theories from behavioral sciencemust be integrated into the early part of design inquiry.We started by considering theory of motivation and thehierarchy of needs developed by Abraham Maslow. Weconsidered this theory because it offers someexplanation of people’s relative prioritization ofeconomic and community concerns.
Maslow’s theory ofmotivation (1970), for example, describes a hierarchy ofneeds in which economic satisfaction could beconsidered a more basic need associated with survival,while community well-being and environmentalconcerns are higher needs related to association andthe quality of life. Applied to a society, it would suggesta similar hierarchy for collective concerns.
In social design, the ultimate goal of any design is toimprove the well being of individuals and the community. Within this in mind, our approach was attentive to build scenarios that focuses on meetingcommunity needs and responding to threats. In sodoing, we incorporated the conception of communitywell-being.
Understanding Social Ecology
The value of this concept can only be realized if it comesto be understood as inclusive of each of the followingthree focal areas, and of the complex relationshipsbetween them:People: individuals, families, groups, small businesses(including relationships)Socio-cultural institutional structures and processes:including pol i tics, social services, economics,corporations, religions, education, technology, mediaNature: environmental and ecological aspects.Social Networks and Support Systems
Context shapes these relationships and is understood asa complex, dynamic set of factors, including socialcontext (social networks and support systems),historical context, cultural context, and institutional context.
Capitals in a Social Ecosystem
From a social ecology perspective, community’secosystem embraces hard infrastructure and softinfrastructure, which are represented by a dynamiccomplex of both fundamental and mobilized assets.It includes a full range of capitals from physicalinfrastructure, natural, economic to social, human andpolitical capitals.Mobilizing assets if not activated to address a particularproblem, remain foundational assets. Thus, they appearin both places in the diagram.Mobilizing assets, at whatever level (either soft or hardinfrastructure), contribute to the on-going process andstructure of community life, but also exist as attributesor conditions that can be called upon when thecommunity needs to respond to internal and externalstresses (threats).The dynamic between mobilized assets and fundamentalassets create the context for the scenario exercise.Explanation of Framework
The framework is useful because it articulates all of thefactors that evoke the capacity of community’s wellbeing.The factors in the framework can be used in agenerative manner to determine the selection of futurescenarios for understanding current situations in Haitiand generating new ideas for design to change thatsituation. In conclusion, our approach provides a biggerpicture for developing a holistic and integrated model. Collectively, the constructs provide a framework withinwhich we defined the objectives and focused on specificaspects of community life. The constructs were used inreviewing other scenarios in various human, social,cultural, education and physical dimensions ofcommunity life.
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